WASHINGTON (AP) – The economy flashed fresh signals of strength in the last two months, with factories buzzing and cash registerers ka-chinging despite high gas prices.
The latest snapshot emerging from the Federal Reserve’s survey of the business climate around the country, released Wednesday, suggested the economy has bounced back nicely from a springtime soft patch. The job market showed some improvements and inflation was fairly contained, the survey also found.
The picture was consistent with the assessment Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan offered last week when he delivered the central bank’s midyear economic outlook to Congress.
At that time, Greenspan signaled that short-term interest rates will continue to move higher in the months ahead in an effort to keep the economy and inflation on an even keel. Economists widely expect Fed policymakers will boost rates by another quarter-percentage point at their next meeting, Aug. 9. The Fed’s survey appears to support such a move.
Over the last year, the Fed has pushed a key interest rate to 3.25 percent in nine modest, quarter-point moves. Before the Fed embarked on its credit tightening, that key rate stood at 1 percent, a 46-year low.
Some analysts believe this key rate could climb as high as 4.25 percent by the end of this year.
In the survey, most of the Fed’s 12 regional districts reported “moderate to solid expansions in manufacturing activity and expectations for future factory activity were generally upbeat.” The survey also noted that “activity in a wide variety of manufacturing industries was characterized as strong.”
Boston and San Francisco, for instance, reported strength in aircraft and high-tech manufacturing; Atlanta and Dallas said refineries were doing quite well. Several districts reported that producers of construction materials, especially cement, and industrial equipment also were busy. But makers of metals and textiles saw some weakness.
The Fed’s survey is based on information collected before July 18.
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