BAGHDAD, Iraq – A week after a historic referendum on a new constitution, Iraq looks much as it did before the vote: Kurdish militias patrol the north, warring Shiite Muslim militias wrestle for control of the south and in the center, an insurgency supported by an angry Sunni Muslim Arab minority battles U.S. forces, the Iraqi government and the Shiites.
No one expected an overnight transformation. But it remains uncertain whether the new constitution and Wednesday’s brief appearance of Saddam Hussein in a courtroom cage can halt or even slow the violence and sectarian divisions that have steadily gained momentum since the U.S.-led invasion 31 months ago.
“Today marks another momentous step toward the building of a new Iraq,” U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad said in a statement at the start of Saddam’s trial. “Like the constitutional referendum we have just witnessed, the trials … at the Iraq Special Tribunal will help pave the path to a democratic and independent Iraq, based on the rule of law.”
Khalilzad’s optimism may prove right, but the perennially sunny comments by U.S. leaders on past events, such as the capture of Saddam, the transfer of sovereignty and January’s National Assembly elections, have been premature at best. And today’s reasons for skepticism extend far beyond concern over the insurgency.
The country is fragmenting, not pulling together, and halting its disintegration won’t be easy:
• Iraq’s ethnic groups are taking matters into their own hands and battling each other. The Iraqi security forces have come a long way in the past two years, but American officials say that only one battalion is ready to operate independently. And many units are manned largely by Shiite troops, some of whom are bent on revenge against the Sunni minority, which had dominated Iraq under Saddam, a fellow Sunni.
In the north, the Kurdish peshmerga militia is the main security force. Throughout the south, radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army and the Iranian-backed Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq’s Badr Organization are fighting province by province for control of the streets. The Baghdad government and official forces are almost irrelevant.
• Most Sunnis and many Shiites lack confidence in Iraq’s government, which many see as a cast of outsiders, including former exiles, who are more interested in religious and political causes than national unity or public services.
• The insurgency, mainly Sunni, has killed thousands in car bombings, roadside explosions and shootings in central and western Iraq.
Security keeps deteriorating, despite the formation of the now-defunct Iraqi governing council in July 2003, followed by a handover of sovereignty, national elections and last weekend’s constitutional referendum. After each event – usually accompanied by massive crackdowns and, often, a ban on vehicular traffic – the attacks have dropped, then spiked again in the following months.
The four-week moving average of attacks – which smoothes out daily fluctuations – has had peaks and valleys but generally has stayed about the same or increased during the past 18 months, according to military statistics. Perhaps most worrying, the weekly number of effective attacks – those that wounded or killed American and Iraqi troops or civilians – has on average more than doubled since February 2004 to 165 during the week of Oct. 7.
Some American military officers say the violence could worsen if the political system fractures further.
“Maybe they just need to have their civil war,” a senior military official in Baghdad said recently. “In this part of the world it’s almost a way of life.” He spoke on condition of anonymity because his opinions are at odds with official views.
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