There are too many Grammy awards. Wednesday night’s telecast from the Staples Center in Los Angeles will go on for (at least) 3½ hours – and still the vast majority of this year’s record 108 gold gramophones will have to be given out off camera.
Trying to make sure it doesn’t miss anything, the Recording Academy issues nominations as if they were Reese’s Pieces on Halloween. In the Oscar race, “Brokeback Mountain” is the clear front-runner, with eight nominations. For the Grammys, Mariah Carey, Kanye West and John Legend each have eight, while Beyonce Knowles, 50 Cent, Stevie Wonder, and Will.I.Am of the Black Eyed Peas each got six.
Despite the nomination inflation, the academy’s cluelessness continues. British-Sri Lankan sensation M.I.A. and statehood historian Sufjan Stevens – the second- and third-place finishers, behind West, in the Village Voice’s annual Pazz & Jop critics poll – received saturation media coverage, but nobody at the Grammys seems to have heard of them. Instead, the awards will go to tried-and-true name brands, like Carey, who’ll be rewarded for keeping the industry afloat by accomplishing what so few can in the Internet Age: sell CDs.
OK, I’ll stop whining. For all the screw-ups and omissions, there’s still a horse race to handicap. There are some intriguing races – in producer of the year, for instance, where the Neptunes and Danger Mouse square off against U2 knob-twiddler Steve Lillywhite, and for alternative album, which pits the Arcade Fire against Beck, Death Cab for Cutie, Franz Ferdinand, and the White Stripes. For brevity’s sake, I’ll limit myself to prognosticating the races in the four major categories.
Album of the year
Will win: Barring a sneak move by U2 (“How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb”), who could benefit from divided votes among the pop contenders, Mariah Carey “s soulful and seductive “The Emancipation of Mimi” will snag the trophy in the Grammys’ most vaunted category.
Deserves to win: Mariah Carey made an urban-pop masterpiece and – at least among this batch of records – merits the win.
Other nominees: Paul McCartney (“Chaos and Creation in the Backyard”), Gwen Stefani (“Love.Angel.Music.Baby.”), Kanye West (“Late Registration”).
Record of the year
Will win: It’s another prime-time Mariah-Kanye matchup, with Mariah Carey “s hip-hoppy ballad “We Belong Together” – notable for her (literally) offbeat vocal performance – getting the final call over his “Gold Digger.”
Deserves to win: The year’s best pop hit, Kelly Clarkson’s “Since U Been Gone,” got snubbed altogether, but a just world would hand the award to the Gorillaz’ magnetic summer single, “Feel Good Inc.”
Other nominees: “Boulevard of Broken Dreams” (Green Day), “Hollaback Girl” (Gwen Stefani).
Song of the year
Will win: Just as the Oscars’ best picture and director honors typically go hand in hand, the Grammys’ record of the year winner is often a lock for songwriting honors. That means a win for Mariah Carey’s “We Belong Together,” penned by Carey, Jermaine Dupri, Johnta Austin and Manuel Seal.
Deserves to win: “Devils & Dust” was the rich, evocative opening cut on Bruce Springsteen’s best album in years, and it is the finest composition among these nominees.
Other nominees: “Bless the Broken Road” (Rascal Flatts), “Ordinary People” (John Legend), “Sometimes You Can’t Make It on Your Own” (U2).
Best new artist
Will win: Recent precedent tells us that Grammy voters appreciate rookie artists who balance popular appeal with nods to tradition. Neo-soulman John Legend, nominated for eight awards like Carey and West, ably fills that bill. The bonus: His name was making timely mainstream inroads late in the year, just as voters received their final ballots.
Deserves to win: Fall Out Boy showed that hit rock can still be creatively vital, but Legend’s old-school authenticity earns him this one.
Other nominees: Ciara, Keane, Sugarland.
Male pop performance
Will win: Paul McCartney (“Fine Line”).
Deserves to win: McCartney.
Other nominees: Jack Johnson (“Sitting, Waiting, Wishing”), Seal (“Walk on By”), Rob Thomas (“Lonely No More”), Stevie Wonder (“From the Bottom of My Heart”).
Female pop performance
Will win: Kelly Clarkson (“Since U Been Gone”).
Deserves to win: Clarkson.
Other nominees: Mariah Carey (“It’s Like That), Sheryl Crow (“Good is Good”), Bonnie Raitt (“I Will Not Be Broken”), Gwen Stefani (“Hollaback Girl”).
Rock album
Will win: U2 (“How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb”).
Deserves to win: Foo Fighters (“In Your Honor”).
Other nominees: Coldplay (“X&Y”), Rolling Stones (“A Bigger Bang”), Neil Young (“Prairie Wind”).
Rock song
Will win: Bruce Springsteen (“Devils & Dust”).
Deserves to win: Springsteen.
Other nominees: Coldplay (“Speed of Sound”), Foo Fighters (“Best of You”), Weezer (“Beverly Hills”), U2 (“City of Blinding Lights”).
Rap album
Will win: Kanye West (“Late Registration”).
Deserves to win: West.
Other nominees: 50 Cent (“The Massacre”), Common (“Be”), Missy Elliott (“The Cookbook”), Eminem (“Encore”).
Rap song
Will win: 50 Cent (“Candy Shop”).
Deserves to win: 50 Cent.
Other nominees: 50 Cent (“Hate It or Love It”), Black Eyed Peas (“Don’t Funk With My Heart”), Missy Elliott (“Lose Control”), Kanye West (“Diamonds From Sierra Leone”).
R&B album
Will win: Alicia Keys (“Unplugged”).
Deserves to win: John Legend (“Get Lifted”).
Other nominees: Earth, Wind and Fire (“Illumination”), Fantasia (“Free Yourself”), Stevie Wonder (“A Time to Love”).
R&B song
Will win: Alicia Keys (“Unbreakable”).
Deserves to win: John Legend (“Get Lifted”).
Other nominees: Destiny’s Child (“Cater 2 U”), Fantasia (“Free Yourself”), Mariah Carey (“We Belong Together”).
Country album
Will win: Gretchen Wilson (“All Jacked Up”). Deserves to win: Wilson.
Other nominees: Faith Hill (“Fireflies”), Alison Krauss (“Lonely Runs Both Ways”), Brad Paisley (“Time Well Wasted”), Trisha Yearwood (“Jasper Country”).
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