MIAMI – Two bursts of good news arrived Thursday on the tropical weather front:

A noted hurricane researcher trimmed his forecast for the rest of the season. And hostile crosswinds nearly disassembled Chris, which barely maintained its status as a tropical storm but still could bring rain to South Florida this weekend.

“We’re not reducing the number of hurricanes because we had only two named storms through late July,” said William Gray, who leads a team of forecasters at Colorado State University. “It’s a general erosion of a number of factors.”

Still, the team’s updated seasonal forecast called for above-average hurricane activity: 15 named storms that grow into seven hurricanes, three of them with winds above 110 mph.

The previous forecast predicted 17 named storms that evolve into nine hurricanes, five of them intense. The average during the last 40 years: 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two intense hurricanes.

He said he was reducing the prediction because storm-busting crosswinds like those that assaulted Chris were stronger than expected, ocean temperatures were not quite as warm as predicted and other factors have changed a bit for the better.

But all of that can provide only limited comfort because larger forces will remain at work through the season, which officially ends Nov. 30.

“We’re in this active cycle in the Atlantic basin that is expected to last another 15 to 20 years,” Gray said.

Federal scientists were scheduled to update their seasonal forecast next week.

Back in the tropics, Chris barely held itself together. Forecasters said it likely would be downgraded to a tropical depression.

South Florida and the Florida Keys remained on the northern periphery of the three-day warning area, and likely will get some rain from the system by Sunday, but the developments significantly diminished the potential danger.

Forecasters said an atmospheric disturbance north of Chris unexpectedly nudged the storm toward the south late Wednesday, altering the forecast track. Then, unfavorable crosswinds tore at the storm. Next, it encountered a batch of dry air, which further impaired its prospects.

Nevertheless, emergency managers advised South Floridians to stay in touch with forecasts, just in case the storm redevelops.

“I woke up and, “Yeah, our collective prayers have been answered,”‘ said Becky Herrin, spokeswoman for Monroe County’s emergency management office. “We are, however, making sure to keep a close eye on it.”

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(McClatchy Newspapers correspondent Cammy Clark contributed to this report.)

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(c) 2006, The Miami Herald.

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AP-NY-08-03-06 1906EDT