For the first time since the government advisory group was formed in the 1990s, Maine economist Charles Colgan is not part of the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission.

Gov. Paul LePage and legislative leaders have swept the commission of all of its members, replacing Colgan and others. 

One of those new members is Scott Moody, chief economist for the Maine Heritage Policy Center, the conservative think tank deeply involved in the LePage administration.

“Sometimes change is good and I think, in this case, it’ll be good in terms of the broad experience that this group brings,” Moody said Thursday. “Hopefully, that’ll mean we won’t leave any stone unturned when making our forecast. The last commission had been in place for many, many years and sometimes, you know, you get a little comfortable.”

The five-member Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission analyzes economic trends and tries to gauge the state’s economic future. Typically, the group’s reports go to the Revenue Forecasting Committee, which uses them to make the tax revenue forecasts that help the governor make budget decisions.

By state law, four commission members are appointed by the governor, with one recommended by the Senate president and one recommended by the speaker of the house. The fifth member is appointed by the other members of the commission.

Although four of five members are appointed by politicians, the commission has historically worked to keep its forecasts nonpartisan and based in independent fact. Still, Colgan said he wasn’t surprised when the new administration, backed by a Republican Legislature, didn’t ask him to serve on the commission for another term.

“I’ve been doing it for 18 years,” Colgan said. “Maybe it’s time for somebody else to take a shot at it. I would have been happy to serve, but if they wanted somebody else, that’s their right.”

The new commission released its first report on April 1, making what Chairman Jim Clair called “modest changes” to the forecast the former commission made in November, with some changes due to the recent spike in fuel prices.

While the old commission tended to take one national economic model and work from it, Clair said, the new group will likely pick and choose data from different models.

“The economic forecast is as much art as science,” he said.

The group’s first priority will be predicting Maine’s economic future for the governor and other state leaders. The new commission, Clair said, is also interested in evaluating Maine’s fiscal policies and looking at the state of the economy, which would allow the group to make recommendations on tax policy and other economic issues. 

Clair worked at the State House as a nonpartisan staff member for 17 years and served previously on the Revenue Forecasting Committee. He said he was not concerned that the new commission — or its reports — would have a politically conservative bent.

“I really would consider that my role as chair is to make sure we’re always being completely objective,” he said.  

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