A new year, a new forecast. Sort of.

Charles Colgan says to expect more 2011 in 2012.

Colgan, a professor at the University of Southern Maine’s Muskie School of Public Service and a former state economist, unveiled his annual Maine economic forecast Tuesday at USM Corporate Partners’ “Breakfast with Charlie” in South Portland. He’ll walk through the forecast again Thursday in Auburn in front of the Androscoggin County Chamber of Commerce.

“The bottom line is I don’t expect much improvement in Maine in 2012 over 2011,” Colgan said in a phone interview. “Job growth will be meager. I don’t look for robust growth until 2013 at the earliest, and I don’t expect to recover to pre-recession levels until the middle of 2017.”

The bulk of economic growth, he said, will happen in Portland, Bangor and Lewiston.

“There are a number of negatives (and) on the top of that is the sheer size of the hole we have to climb out of,” Colgan said. Causing uncertainty: Consumers aren’t on solid ground. Oil prices are risky. “And,” he said, “what I’m calling ‘fiscal policy follies.'”

Western Maine will largely track with the rest of the state, but one indicator he called “definitely” good news for the area: “Most of the jobs lost in manufacturing in Maine have been lost through the business cycle rather than to import competition, and that’s a big shift from previous recessions. I do expect manufacturing to stabilize and even add a few hundred jobs here and there.”

In his forecast, Colgan says households are saving, and spending, more and that foreclosures are still high. He also found Maine added 8,100 private-sector jobs between September 2010 and November 2011 and lost 2,700 government jobs.

His outlook isn’t bright for health care employment, one of the staples of the Twin Cities’ economy.

Colgan’s forecast has become a local annual event. Chamber staff said tickets remained for fewer than 20 of the 300 seats at the Hilton Garden Inn. They were available Tuesday on a first-come, first-served basis.

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