AUGUSTA – With a band of highly motivated supporters and a natural appeal to a mass of like-minded independents, Ron Paul’s prospects at this weekend’s Maine Republican caucuses are rated very high by party officials and other political observers.

Maine’s GOP polling Friday, Saturday and Sunday may be the Texas congressman’s best shot at winning a state, and the win would be big coming just says ahead of the Super Tuesday presidential preference contests in more than 20 states.

It doesn’t hurt that Paul’s visit earlier this week made him the only presidential aspirant from either party to visit the state in the run-up to the caucuses.

“I think that (because) he’s paid attention to Maine, he’ll be rewarded,” R. Kenneth Lindell, Paul’s campaign coordinator in Maine, said Thursday.

Lindell wouldn’t give specifics on the number of Paul volunteers, but allowed that the number is in the hundreds, not a small figure considering Maine’s relatively small population and meager share of the national delegate pool.

Paul’s campaign has drawn a mix of young voters who are getting involved in politics for the first time, longtime Republicans with libertarian leanings or who are unhappy with the direction the party’s been going, and independents who’ve left the party, said Lindell.

Maine has center stage as the nation’s only presidential preference event this weekend, giving the winner a chance of carrying momentum into Super Tuesday’s voting. Democrats gather on the following weekend in Maine.

The nonbinding Republican caucuses are the first step toward electing Maine’s 18 delegates to the party’s national convention. Three ranking party leaders also go.

As for Paul’s prospects, he can take heart that Mainers tend to march to their own drummer.

In 1992, Ross Perot delivered a shocker in Maine, beating out summer resident and then-President George H.W. Bush to come in second behind Bill Clinton. And that came after former California Gov. Jerry Brown beat Clinton in the Democratic caucuses.

Unenrolled or independent voters can play an important role in Maine politics, since they make up the largest bloc of voters. The law allows independents to come in the day of the caucus and enroll in a party.

“If we have a good showing here in Maine, that could carry forward into Super Tuesday when we could pick up delegates,” said Lindell. That would be significant in the case of a brokered convention, he said.

State GOP Executive Director Julie O’Brien said Paul supporters have been resourceful in finding opportunities for support, for example, organizing caucuses in towns where none had been scheduled.

“I have felt strongly for three weeks that he stood a better chance (in Maine) than any other candidate,” said O’Brien. But her view has eased slightly now that Sen. John McCain has won in Florida and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has dropped out and endorsed McCain.

Also, Maine GOP efforts to encourage general caucus participation could send more supporters for McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney to the polls, she noted.

University of Maine political science Professor Mark Brewer said he doesn’t see Paul as a favorite, but adds that his best chances are in caucus states like Maine. Paul finished No. 2 in the caucus state of Nevada Jan. 19.

“I wouldn’t be completely stunned of Ron Paul won the caucuses” in Maine, Brewer said.

Brewer wasn’t sure how much carry-over effect a caucus win would have on Super Tuesday, but said a win by Paul could only help.

Copy the Story Link