WASHINGTON (AP) – Two Army generals who formed an unusually successful partnership as chief and second-in-command in Baghdad are in line for an encore – with a twist.
Gen. David Petraeus, the top commander in Iraq, is being promoted by President Bush to the broader job of leading American forces throughout the Middle East – including Iraq – and Central Asia.
Replacing him in Baghdad will be Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, a telegenic soldier who managed to shake a reputation as a heavy-handed commander – earned during his first Iraq tour in 2003-04 – and replace it with glowing reviews as Petraeus’ top deputy three years later.
The nominations, if approved by the Senate as expected, would keep the administration on its present course in Iraq and hand the next administration a pair of combat-tested commanders who have relentlessly defended Bush’s decision last year to build up troop levels rather than wind down the war.
Odierno left Iraq two months ago, credited by many with implementing Petraeus’ counterinsurgency strategy during the 12 months they served together. He had been recently nominated to be the next Army vice chief of staff at the Pentagon, but Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced Wednesday that Bush would instead ask the Senate to confirm him in the Iraq job.
Petraeus would again by Odierno’s boss.
“They are a very good team, working together,” said Conrad Crane, director of the Army’s Military History Institute and the main author of the U.S. military’s new counterinsurgency doctrine.
Petraeus would replace Navy Adm. William J. Fallon as chief of U.S. Central Command, whose area of responsibility features some of the most vexing military and foreign policy problems facing this administration and its successor – including Iran, Pakistan, Lebanon, parts of Africa and Afghanistan as well as Iraq.
Fallon and Petraeus clashed, particularly in the early months after Fallon arrived at Central Command in March 2007.
Fallon resigned last month, saying news reports that he was at odds with the White House over Iran policy had become a distraction. He was the first Navy officer to lead Central Command; the Petraeus choice represents a return to the more common practice of making it an Army slot.
Gates said he hoped the Senate would act on both nominations by Memorial Day and he expected Petraeus to switch to the Central Command job, which is based at Tampa, Fla., by late summer or early fall.
That is the point at which Petraeus is likely to make an initial recommendation to Gates and to Bush on whether conditions in Iraq are stable enough to permit a further reduction in U.S. troop levels.
The United States has about 160,000 troops in Iraq and about 28,000 in Afghanistan. The strain of those wars has taken a heavy toll on U.S. ground forces.
Among the politically sensitive questions Petraeus would face as head of Central Command is whether the U.S. military focus on Iraq is limiting what U.S. and allied forces can accomplish in Afghanistan. And he would be pressed on the matter of using military force against Iran.
The next president would not be compelled to keep either Petraeus or Odierno, but normally the lineup of senior commanders – as well as the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff – is not changed with administrations.
“There is no precedent in U.S. tradition for a new president changing these kinds of officers,” said Stephen Biddle, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and an occasional adviser to Petraeus. “For an incoming president to change them (in 2009) would be a real statement.”
Republicans, including the likely presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain, are enthusiastic Petraeus supporters. Democrats on Capitol Hill are not expected to oppose either Petraeus or Odierno, but they are likely to raise tough questions at confirmation hearings.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid noted after Gates’ announcement that any war commander must be committed to “implementing major changes in strategy” if directed to do so by a new president.
“The Senate will carefully examine these nominations, and I will be looking for credible assurances of a strong commitment to implementing a more effective national security strategy,” said Reid, D-Nev.
At a Pentagon news conference, Gates said he did not foresee that the new lineup at Central Command and in Iraq would mean any changes in the way the U.S. is approaching the issue of Iranian influence in Iraq. Petraeus and Odierno have both accused Iran of aiding rebels opposing U.S. troops.
“It’s my belief that General Odierno and General Petraeus and Admiral Fallon were all in exactly the same position when it came to their views of Iranian interference inside Iraq,” Gates said. “And it is a hard position. Because what the Iranians are doing is killing American service men and women inside Iraq.”
Petraeus will face broader aspects of the Iran issue if he is confirmed as Fallon’s replacement. A number of U.S. officials, including Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have asserted that Iran also is supplying arms or otherwise supporting the Taliban rebels in Afghanistan.
Earlier this week, Gates said that while war with Iran would be “disastrous on a number of levels,” the military option cannot be abandoned so long as the Iranians remain a potential nuclear threat.
Petraeus has many admirers, but some are cautioning against expecting too much of him at Central Command.
“As much of a miracle worker as he’s been in Iraq, it would be unrealistic to expect Gen. Petraeus to be able to generate anything close to comparable results with Pakistan or Iran anytime soon,” said Michael O’Hanlon, a Brookings Institution analyst. “Afghanistan may be where he has the greatest potential for influence.”
Many had seen a strong possibility that Gates’ senior military assistant, Army Lt. Gen. Peter Chiarelli, would replace Petraeus in Baghdad if Petraeus were nominated for the Central Command job.
Asked why he had recommended Odierno, Gates said, “General Odierno is known recently to the Iraqi leadership, he’s known to the Iraqi generals, he is known to our own people, he has current experience,” and so the odds of a smooth transition in Baghdad “are better with him than with anybody else I could identify.”
AP-ES-04-23-08 1757EDT
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