One-third of the season lies ahead in the Campbell Conference, but in the Pine Tree Conference, with eight teams qualifying for the playoffs in both Class A and Class B again this year, teams only have two weeks to decide their post-season fate.
I never claimed to be Nostradamus. Just look at my record with the weekly picks. But I’m going to at least try to handicap who will be in and who will be get an early start on the winter season in two weeks.
Class A:
Lawrence, Bangor, Lewiston and Skowhegan essentially have the top four spots, and homefield advantage in the first round, sewn up, although Skowhegan, with Lawrence and Mt. Blue left on the schedule, needs to win one of its final two to make things official. Lawrence should, for all intents and purposes, clinch the top seed with a win over the Indians tonight (the Bulldogs have Messalonskee in Week 8).
That leaves seven teams battling for the final four spots. Messalonskee and Edward Little, which has Mt. Ararat and Lewiston left on its schedule, would have to win out and get a lot of help to sneak in. That leaves Mt. Ararat, Mt. Blue, Oxford Hills, Brunswick and Cony to battle for the last half of the bracket. One of those teams is going to be left out when the final Crabtree standings come out.
Here are the remaining schedules for those five teams, with the teams listed based on where they sit in the current Crabtrees in spots 5-9:
Mt. Blue (3-3, 102.083 Crabtree points): at Bangor (5-1), Skowhegan (5-1)
Mt. Ararat (3-3, 100.000): at Edward Little (1-5), Brunswick (2-4).
Brunswick (2-4, 91.667): Cony (2-4), at Mt. Ararat (3-3)
Oxford Hills (3-3, 89.583): at Lewiston (5-1), Cony (2-4)
Cony (2-4, 85.417): at Brunswick (2-4), at Oxford Hills (3-3)
Mt. Blue clearly has the toughest task ahead. Mt. Ararat stands the best chance of finishing above .500. Brunswick and Oxford Hills basically can go by a simple mantra – Beat Cony.
Who’s out when all is said and done: Cony
Class B:
Gardiner has established itself as the top team in the conference. If they take care of business against Morse and Leavitt the next two weeks, they will enjoy home field throughout. Winslow, if it can hold off Maranacook and Waterville, should be the No. 2. Morse picked up a huge win over Leavitt next week to move a game ahead of the Hornets, and considering both teams have Gardiner left on the schedule, it’s unlikely that the third and fourth spots will change. Mount Desert Island could sneak in and earn a home game with Nokomis and Belfast left on the schedule, but the Trojans have lost a number of two-way starters to off-field issues. Still, they’re in the picture.
That leaves Waterville, Belfast, Hampden Academy, Maranacook and Oak Hill to fight for the final three spots.Waterville, which has Winslow and winless Old Town left on the schedule, will get in with a win. So two of the remaining four teams will be on the outside looking in. Here are the remaining schedules (no Crabtree standings available):
Belfast (2-4): Leavitt (4-2), at MDI (4-2)
Hampden (2-4): at Oak Hill (2-4), Old Town (0-6)
Maranacook (2-4): at Winslow (5-1), Nokomis (1-5)
Oak Hill (2-4): Hampden (2-4), at Morse (5-1)
If the goal is to win out and make things a little easier on yourself, then Hampden has the best chance to control its own destiny. Oak Hill, with Morse on the horizon, could be fighting for its life against the Broncos on Saturday, though. Belfast has the toughest road ahead. Maranacook doesn’t want to take the Nokomis game for granted. The Warriors could be a pesky spoiler.
Who’s out when all is said and done: Maranacook and Belfast.
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